Monday, April 25, 2016

Crude oil futures - weekly outlook: April 25 – 29

Crude Oil

Oil prices rose on Friday, notching up a third successive week of gains as concerns about a global supply glut eased, bolstering investor sentiment.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in May settled at $43.73 a barrel at the close, up 55 cents or 1.27% for the day, extending the week’s gains to 10.68%.
Global benchmark Brent settled up 1.35% or 60 cents at $45.13 a barrel. It ended the week up 4.71%.

Disruptions to supply from an oil worker strike in Kuwait early in the week helped prop up prices after the weekend’s failed negotiations between major producers on an output freeze intended to rein in ballooning overproduction and shore up prices.
Prices continued to be underpinned after the International Energy Agency said Thursday it expects the oil market to rebalance from oversupply by next year, provided there is no major economic downturn.
IEA chief Fatih Birol said 2016 would see the biggest decline in non-OPEC oil supply in the last 25 years, which will help the market to come back into balance from oversupply.

Also Thursday, an official from OPEC said it will discuss freezing oil production at its next meeting in June.
But analysts have cautioned that freezing production near current levels is unlikely to reduce the global supply glut.
Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose slightly less than expected last week and continued to hover near record highs.
The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.08 million barrels in the latest week, bringing total crude stocks to 538.6 million barrels.

Crude production continued to decline, falling to an average 8.95 million barrels per day from 8.98 million in the prior week. Production has now fallen in 11 out of the past 12 weeks as low prices continue to erode shale output.
On Friday, oil services company Baker Hughes said the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs, viewed as a proxy for activity in the sector, fell for the fifth straight week to the lowest level since November 2009.

In the week ahead
Tuesday’s supply data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute will be in focus ahead of Wednesday’s weekly government report on stockpiles.
Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 25
Markets in Australia will remain closed for the Anzac day holiday.
The Ifo Institute for Economic Research is to release data German business climate.
The U.S. is to release data on new home sales.

Tuesday, April 26
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a private sector report on consumer confidence.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in New York.
The API is to release its weekly report on crude stocks.

Wednesday, April 27
New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance.
Australia is to report on consumer price inflation.
The U.K. is to release a first readout of first quarter gross domestic product.
The EIA is to publish its weekly report on crude stockpiles.
The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, April 28
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
The Bank of Japan is to hold its next monetary policy review. The rate announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
Japan is also to release data on household spending, inflation, retail sales and unemployment.
In the euro area, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on inflation, as well as reports on unemployment.
The U.S. is to publish its initial estimate of first quarter economic growth and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, April 29
Markets in Japan will be closed for a national holiday.
Australia is to report on producer price inflation.
The euro zone is to publish preliminary reports on consumer inflation and first quarter growth.
Germany is to report on retail sales.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak at an event in Bern.
Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP.
The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal spending and revised data on consumer sentiment.